A[quote name=“stelios” url=“/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu#post_4080860”]The Union isn’t an a la carte proposal. If everyone gets to pick and choose which rules apply to them it will end up an even more difficult effort. And it’s already epically hard.
It’s all or nothing.[/quote]
Sure. But if “all” gets to the point where it’s spurring member states to leave, maybe they might want to take that into consideration.
Oh, I agree. I was more commenting on what the motivation is behind a lot of this, and that Schauble’s intervention won’t necessarily make much of a dent. I wish he hadn’t said anything about coming back later if Britain wants to. One of my main logical arguments is that Britain can leave whenever it wants to (sort of, article 50, ordinary legislation and all that), but once it is out, it is out forever.
You might think that, but that would basically defeat the point of a common market. Plus, the long game remains co-operation leading to convergence leading to political union (please). it might seem pragmatic to try to box and cox for a while, and perhaps it seems attractive to do so when the mood music across the continent is not towards integration but there will be a lot of resistance, quite rightly, to stepping back, even if you don’t currently move forwards.
There is an argument to say the EU would be better off without Britain (politically at least), but since I live in Britain, I’m not going to be saying that out in public.
In some respects it is worth remembering what the EU is.
There is the EC - this is the common market, same rules for doing business, free movement, no customs duties or similar, labour laws etc
There is the EU - this is the overarching entity which defines citizenship, includes the EC, but also has institutional involvement in stuff around justice, home affairs and foregin policy, purely on a best efforts, co-operative basis
There is the Eurozone - this is the bit with the common currency and all the monetary and lackof fiscal unity that entails.
Immigration aside, which is as I have argued before, taking up time utterly disproportionate to its actual effect on the country, as well as being a fig leaf for domestic policy failings, the political/economic stuff Brexiteers most commonly get stressed about it (a) getting pulled into the Eurozone and (b) the introduction of the EU leading to replacing co-operation on those non-EC issues with actual dominion over them. The irony of course is that no-one has suggested that the exception from the Eurozone, nor the limited involvement on justice or foregin affairs, should be altered.
It’s all fear for the future. Which is bollocks, because any such changes would trigger the need for a referendum under UK law, and even if the Tories hadn’t crowbarred that into our constitution, would precipitate a national debate on whether to pull out anyway.
Schauble’s comments seem quite reasonable actually, even though the headline talking point of “You won’t be allowed to adopt the Norwegian model” is the key talking point.
He has stressed that further political integration is impossible with the brexit looming and expressed worries about the Netherlands for example reacting in a similar fashion. That the politicians would appear out of touch if they didn’t respond by realizing there is potential dissatisfaction with the way things are being handled in Europe anyway.
And yes, we can come back. Probably humiliatingly cap in hand, and he has said quite happily he’ll take us. Because whatever deal we have to take in thirty years time will not involve half the concessions we have now.
Frankly, the Iceland/Norwegian model is a non-starter anyway. The concessions required to make that work are essentially the key points that Brexit are talking down. We’re just going to have to be an external country, tariffs and all and work it out from there.
All fair points. On reflection the Brexit official position seem to have hardened around the idea that we will simply trade with Europe as an outside party. Which seems like an odd position to put yourself in for the sake of not taking some domestic steps to alleviate the pain for people affected by competitive forces.
AJoin us, Britain! Become the 51st state.
AI believe our official designation is Airstrip One in that case.
AWe’ll call you “Old England!”
AYe Olde England, please.
EDIT: Sorry, meant this for the Political thread.
ASo if the good people of UK vote for Brexit, what are the odds that that results in Wales and Scotland voting “yes” for independence, and then joining the European Union?
AClose to zero. Mikepants will correct me if I’m wrong but Wales hasn’t shown much interest in independence.
Another Scottish independence referendum is completely off the table with the oil price this low.
AFor now, that is true.
I was against independence last time around, but if Britain leaves, my view on Scottiah independence will completely change. For entirely selfish reasons. If it declares independence, it will be the closest place in Europe I can move to without learning a new language. Ireland is also a possibility, and I hold an Irish passport, but my wife hates the place.
AThere hasn’t been much call for Independence from Wales but in the last few weeks people are becoming much more aware of the aid and funds that Wales gets from the EU. Something like £500 million a year, so who knows?
I sadly dont have much to contribute to the thread as I’m certainly among the unwashed masses struggling to keep up with all the facts (and I use the term loosely) being paraded about.
Anyone I talk to who will vote leave is doing so because of “immigration” they can’t elaborate on that, it’s just “immigration”. I genuinely think alot of people think they are simply voting to stop “immigration”. Any side effects or consequences just don’t matter, it’s terrifying.
AJhp I didn’t realise you were Irish. I was born in Dublin, my wife also hates it.
The Scottish Independence movement will also depend on how many Scots vote for Brexit. There’s a current movement in Scotland to vote Brexit just to get rid of Cameron - if Brexit happens, he’s probably toast. Dumb though, as the government will essentially refuse to allow another referendum for the SNP because they’ll claim the Scottish wanted Brexit as much as the English.
If anyone jumps back into the European fold though, the Scottish will be the first and if the economy tanks, everyone will corral the wagons around London, so the provinces will suffer, which could well motivate a resurgent Welsh independence movement.
What the fuck? I thought a major issue between the Scottish and the English was the former were more pro-EU.
Talk about cutting the nose off to spite the face.
A[quote name=“Mike’s Pants” url=“/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu/50#post_4081282”]Jhp I didn’t realise you were Irish. I was born in Dublin, my wife also hates it.[/quote]
Half on my mum’s side. I’m also French Swiss and German, hence the total lack of nationalism in me!
I like the craic but it ain’t no way to run a country. Or to put it more insightfully, Ireland is so small and lacking in the four quadrants of a self-sustaining and pluralistic economy that it’s horribly unequal: corrupt and materialistic on the one hand; earthy and fun, but dirt poor on the other. Living in neither condition appeals particularly. Which is a shame because there could be such warmth and cohesion if they could just be less reliant on services and find some other, sustainable but productive, exporting industries.
A[quote name=“stelios” url=“/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu/50#post_4081288”]What the fuck? I thought a major issue between the Scottish and the English was the former were more pro-EU.
Talk about cutting the nose off to spite the face.
[/quote]
Yep. The strategy, such as it is, would be to then go indy and ask to become part of the EU. Such is the unlikely economic story of an independent Scotland at the moment that the chances of the EU agreeing to take on yet another poor relation is very unlikely. The nationalists answer to that is to keep the pound, but the lack of control over monetary policy was one of the knots they didn’t manage to untangle well enough the last time,
So, today we’ve had one of the leading lights of the Brexit campaign leading a flotilla of Scottish fishing boats up the Thames to advocate leaving the EU because of the long slow death of the fishing industry. Never mind that as a member of the European Parliament he hasn’t been to more than 1 meeting in 42 on the subject and missed key votes on reform proposals to shift power back to the national governments. Also, let’s only mention in passing that the primary cause of the decline of small fishing enterprises in the UK is the industry consolidation precipitated by domestic political decisions after they were handed back by Brussels.
Anyway, so the flotilla heads down to central London whereupon Sir Bob Geldof, late of the Boomtown Rats and Live Aid, like a scruffy Walter Raleigh leads a fleet of RIBs and other inflatable boats to intercept the Brexit armada. Cue the trading of insults over megaphones, the trolling press photos of the Brexit politican by raising huge “Remain” flags behind him as the pictures are taken, V-signs and water cannon fired from the fishing boats in defence.
What a farce. Like something out of an Ealing comedy, our democracy has been reduced to aquatic handbags between a be-blazered narcissist and a washed up rock star. The home of the mother of Parliaments, the split atom and Bobby Charlton.
Jesus wept.
At least we got this fine comparison between the Brexit douche and Alan Patridge. Which kind of almost made up for the nationally embarrassing shit show.