AIt’s essentially an attempt at a synthetic coup. There are no good reasons because right now there is no good reason, no real motivation, no actual threat. The whole thing is manufactured to placate a nationalist and populist minority whose only real threat was to one party.
Let’s look at the arguments.
We already retain sovereignty in the sense we have referendum locks on treaty changes, EU law is incorporated into our legal system through ordinary legislation capable of repeal through simple majority in Parliament, we can activate article 50 TEU through exercise of Crown prerogative entirely within the hands of the sitting government (I think, and even if not, again it’s a question of simple majority in Parliament). The sovereignty argument is specious and there are no, none, zero existential or material threats to the UK arising from Europe that require us to activate that sovereignty.
We’ve benefited from the single market as a nation. The only laws we’re subject to that we don’t have total control over are those that ensure the existence of the single market. All of them help reduce cost as much as they increase it. They are pretty much cost neutral but the access to the single market is the benefit we wouldn’t otherwise have ; unless you buy the argument we’ll just skip into a brand new deal of equal balance. About which I have zero confidence.
I hesitate to give immigration arguments the time of day because they absolutely are rooted in xenophobia, racism and nationalism, three political cancers that the founders of the EU and all the other multilateral organisations that sprung up post WW2 knew better than to believe they could cure but knew well enough they had to be neutralised. People complaining about threats to jobs, housing, healthcare and education are victims of domestic policy failures, not the marginal differences made by a relatively small number of immigrants who on average pay their taxes and don’t use social or health services.
Plus, you know what, there is no sound logical reason why you should pay more for services because one bidder is of the same nationality as you. It’s inefficient, wasteful and nonsensical. Those who have been impacted, and I mean only those affected through no fault of their own, should have been subjected to investment and help, not just left to rot and then had their situation manipulated and their misplaced anger pandered to. Oh, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that most socially beneficial law introduced in the UK over the last 40 years has come from Europe. Equal pay? Protection against unfair dismissal? Consumer rights? Safer products? Greater transparency and protection for investments? Fairer procurement for government contracts? Abolition of unfair national industrial and commercial discrimination? Yep, all from Europe.
I’ve eavesdropped on early discussions among cornerstone investors in the UKIP/Brexit project and their only interest is rolling back the social and labour progress Britain has been rightly strongarmed into accepting over the last 40 years. Everything else is dogwhistling and button-pressing aimed at the ignorant, the underprivileged, the poorly served and the bigoted. My fear is that, in a country where education policy could almost be said to have been designed to create the narrowest minds and the smallest horizons possible and nearly a third are prepared to acknowledge their racism explicitly, that is a dangerous and powerful coalition.
Ultimately what riles me the most is that our allies, our trading partners and our friends are grappling with existential issues such as migration, economic crisis, and terrorist threat, cooked up and fomented with a cupful of populism less interested in long term thinking than short term revenge. And what are we planning to do? Shaft them even more by giving them an existential headache to deal with, taking up time, effort and resources from solving the real problems Europe currently faces and could overcome with concerted effort if only its constituent members weren’t so threatened with and distracted.
And we’re expecting constructive dialogue from people we’ve not only let down but pushed further into the muck. Yeah right. We’re expecting others to do long term trade deals with us after we’ve just torn one up? Yeah right. We’re expecting investors to treat us as a safe harbour, political risk neutral nation and a bridge to Europe? Yeah right.
It pisses me off on a moral level and a practical one.
We may stay in and I will breathe a sigh of relief. I’ve never felt such existential panic about a political decision before though. I understand completely what it might feel like being a US citizen and thinking that Trump stands a decent chance of becoming President.