The 2026 Midterms Thread

[iron_maiden]

There will be plenty of news coming our way regarding the midterms, so I figured a one-stop-shop made sense.

Dems are looking good, but let’s start up with some doom and gloom:

https://x.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/202…0873015498

NEW: For the first time in years, Dems are sounding the alarm about $$$ problems.
Inside a FL strategy session with top WH, Trump aides last week as RNC preps for new spending rules from Supreme Court.
Me and @teddyschleifer on the money factor in 2026.
The pending Supreme Court decision is widely expected to water down Democrats’ yearslong advantage in grass-roots donations.
So RNC has stockpiled cash — and is preparing to buy TV ads at cheaper rates to offset Dem candidate COH edges.
Meanwhile, Musk is edging off the sidelines, attending a recent Mar-a-Lago wedding, giving $10 million to GOP super PAC. His aides are polling races and he is lobbying for SAVE Act — with spending decisions linked to votes, per person close to his group.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/us/po...ising.html

[vtran]

While it does look pretty damn good for the Dems to possibly win control of congress, the more it looks like this will happen, Miller, DJT, MJohnson, et al will become more devious and desperate to fuck with the election process.

I hope I’m wrong but there are still a lot of GOP led states out there that will willingly go along with Miller/Vought/etc. and the 2025 plan to keep control.

[fraid_uh_noman]

No Democrat should ever assume that our side is for sure going to win or let their guard down ever again..

[iron_maiden]

https://x.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/202…3431716976

.@Fla_Pol trying to track down rumor that Republican @DrNealDunnFL2 is resigning imminently rather than at end of his term, which he previously announced.
Dunn stepping down now would imperil @HouseGOP’s majority.
Developing…

Which would mean a special election is coming.

I guess we’ll see:

https://x.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/202…9901183163

100% not done with this story.
Gonna be a long 4-day weekend for @DrNealDunnFL2 staffers.

• if you’re running in CD 2 in 2026, best get ready for an oddly timed Spesh Elex

[iron_maiden]

Not a bad day to start this thread because today is Election Day!

Some results for you - and plenty of Democratic overperformances…

Up first, an easy victory for the Dems:

https://x.com/Uncrewed/status/2021394915213926604

Final results in the Virginia #HD05 (Harris+59) special election:
Kirk McPike (D)- 81.8%
Marvin Mason Butler ®- 18.2%
Four point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats in this districts on the outskirts of Washington D.C.

Up next is another easy one, but where there was some room to grow:

https://x.com/Uncrewed/status/2021397470409089371

Final results in the Virginia #SD39 (Harris+55) special election:
Elizabeth Bennett-Parker (D)- 82.8%
Julie Robben Linberry ®- 17.2%
Not only do the Democrats outperform Harris by 10 points, they also nearly match Spanberger’s 66 point win here from November!

Lastly, Dems couldn’t take this deeply-red district in Oklahoma, but they sure did overperform:

https://x.com/Uncrewed/status/2021410514082185329

Final results in the Oklahoma #HD35 (Trump+58) special election:
Dillon Travis ®- 64.2%
Luke Kruse (D)- 35.8%
The Oklahoma Democrats put in a 30 point overperformance in rural Oklahoma!

[iron_maiden]

Sen. Collins made it official:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/20…um=twitter

Sen. Susan Collins formally announced her reelection bid in Maine, a boon for Republicans’ efforts to keep the Senate that also sets up another competitive election in the Pine Tree State.

[iron_maiden]

Update:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…b20b&ei=17

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski has conceded his loss to Analilia Mejia in the New Jersey special election for the congressional seat left by new Gov. Mikie Sherill.
Malinowski was one of 11 Democratic candidates that ran for the seat, and he lost to Mejia by 889 votes. Mejia is expected to host a press conference later Tuesday.
“I congratulate Analilia Mejia on her hard-won victory in the NJ-11 special primary. I look forward to supporting her in the April general election. It is essential that we send a Democrat to Washington to fill this seat, not a rubber stamp for Donald Trump,” Malinowski said in his concession statement. “I am proud of the joyful and substantive campaign my team and I ran, and am immensely grateful to the volunteers and staff who made it possible.”
Mejia will face Joe Hathaway, the Republican mayor of Randolph, N.J., on April 16. She worked for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., during his presidential campaign in 2020. Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., endorsed her.

[iron_maiden]

https://x.com/baseballot/status/2021656721882804231

Trump, new USPS postmark rules, and the Supreme Court are all threatening to jeopardize the counting of mail ballots that arrive after Election Day in 2026.
But how many ballots are we talking about? @ByCarterWalker ran the numbers:
https://www.votebeat.org/2026/02/11/how-...eme-court/

[iron_maiden]

https://x.com/riley_rogerson/status/2021594756585799906

A look at how Brian Fitzpatrick’s $7 mill war chest is impacting his race in the swingy PA suburbs.
“It’s going to look like a modern presidential campaign waged in one congressional district,” one PA Dem said.
w/ @avanidkalra
https://www.notus.org/campaigns/rep-bria…-democrats

[iron_maiden]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…1783&ei=14

House Republicans are rushing ahead on Wednesday on legislation that would impose strict new proof-of-citizenship requirements ahead of the midterm elections, a longshot Trump administration priority that faces sharp blowback in the Senate.
The bill, called the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility, or SAVE America Act, would require Americans to prove they are citizens when they register to vote, mostly through a valid U.S. passport or birth certificate. It would also require a valid photo identification before voters can cast ballots, which some states already demand.
Republicans said the legislation is needed to prevent voter fraud, but Democrats warn it will disenfranchise millions of Americans by making it harder to vote. Federal law already requires that voters in national elections be U.S. citizens, but there’s no requirement to provide documentary proof. Experts said voter fraud is extremely rare, and very few noncitizens ever slip through the cracks. Fewer than one in 10 Americans don’t have paperwork proving they are citizens.

[bailey]

A passport or birth certificate? Are you fucking kidding me? As I recall it takes money and several months to get a copy of a birth certificate if you don’t have one. This is going to drive voting numbers way down if it happens.

[iron_maiden]

At this point, I really don’t think you need to be anonymous:

https://x.com/ajlamesa/status/2021607468804059443

“Joe Biden’s lingering unpopularity is proving to be a serious drag on Biden alums running in swing districts across the country,” a national Democratic strategist who requested anonymity told Axios.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/11/democra...biden-2026

[iron_maiden]

I guess these articles have to go in here now:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ga-off…1e8d&ei=21

The warrant allowing access to an elections hub in Fulton County, Georgia was unsealed Feb. 10, more than a week after federal investigators seized hundreds of boxes of materials relating to the 2020 election.
Agents with the FBI were not carrying a physical warrant when they arrived at the Union City facility, leading to confusion for staff and local police on whether the agents had permission to access the ballot storage.
Body camera footage captured by Fulton County police showed federal agents explaining the warrant needed to be updated because they didn’t have all the information about the building, but that a digital version had been given to the Clerk of Courts, and the face of the warrant had been shown to police.
The full warrant remained sealed, even to Fulton County officials. On Feb. 4 a motion was filed under the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure 41(g) alleging federal investigators may have been able to view election materials, but ballots should not have been taken from the custody of the Clerk. The motion demands materials be returned to Fulton County.

[iron_maiden]

https://x.com/Isikoff/status/2021386733640708402

.@DNIGabbard claimed she showed up for the FBI search in Fulton County because she has “robust authority” to oversee matters involving “foreign intelligence threats” to elections. Today, the affidavits supporting the search were unsealed- and there is not a word about foreign meddling. Nothing.
https://www.spytalk.co/p/gabbards-claim-...ntent=post

[iron_maiden]

Update:

https://x.com/allymutnick/status/2021650883722051868

Majority Math: GOP Rep Neal DUNN said “no comment” to repeated questions from @sarahnferris & others on whether he planned to serve the remainder of his term…
If he resigns before the #GA14 special is over, the House will be at 217R to 214D

And:

https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2021651474917552279

House Republican leadership believes that Neal Dunn is going to resign by July. I know Dunn is denying it. But the leadership thinks he’s gone in five months.

[vtran]

This election/Gabbard situation is more performative bullshit. It’s a piss poor attempt to give it an air of legitimacy.
Watch…they will miraculously find some manufactured evidence that somehow proves the patently false narrative of the election being manipulated.

[iron_maiden]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…790f&ei=15

The Republican-controlled House voted Wednesday to pass the SAVE America Act, a sweeping election bill that President Donald Trump is pushing Congress to enact.
The vote was 218-213, with Republicans unanimously voting in favor and all but one Democrat voting against it. The one Democrat voting yes was Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas.

[iron_maiden]

Interesting context:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/w…8d79&ei=15

Although President Donald Trump won Texas handily in 2024 with a 14 percent lead over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, he performed especially well in a district that includes the Fort Worth suburbs — which he won by 17 percent. Yet in a recent special election for a Texas State Senate seat that same district, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 14 percent.
In an op-ed published by The Hill on February 11, Kim A. Snyder (director and producer of the PBS documentary “The Librarians”) and Texas-based librarian Audrey Wilson-Youngblood (who appears in the film) argue that book bans and attacks on librarians by the far-right group Moms for Liberty played a key role Rehmet’s victory. But Snyder and Wilson also stress that Rehmet’s win was not an anomaly, but rather, a reflection of widespread anger against Moms for Liberty and others in MAGA World.
“We hope voters will realize that this issue is far from settled,” Snyder and Wilson-Youngblood write. “Rehmet and Wambsganss will face-off again in November for the full term. And Texas is not an outlier, but a preview. In North Texas and in communities across the nation, we have seen how easily our rights to intellectual freedom can be taken away. We must stay vigilant to ensure history does not continue to repeat itself.”
They continue, “There is a reason groups like Moms for Liberty — which has financial backing from Patriot Mobile — have made a coordinated effort to weaken public education, hollow out civic institutions and target vulnerable communities. This is a deliberate strategy that undermines trust in our government’s ability to serve its citizens.”
Moms for Liberty have been drawing criticism not only from liberals and progressives, but also, from right-wing libertarians and Never Trump conservatives. And Snyder and Wilson-Youngblood, in their op-ed, emphasize that book bans should be viewed strictly in Democrat-versus-Republicans terms.
“We, as Americans, also need to reframe the issue of book bans away from partisan talking points, so that our fellow citizens understand what is at stake,” Snyder and Wilson-Youngblood argue. “It is not about red versus blue — it is about democracy versus authoritarianism. There is a reason polling and local elections show that parents broadly oppose censorship and do not want politicians or school boards dictating what their children read. Parental rights should mean deciding what is right for your own child, not the right to impose restrictions on everyone else’s.”
Snyder and Wilson-Youngblood add, “We are proud to stand with courageous librarians who never expected to find themselves at the forefront of this fight to defend democracy. These librarians may be vilified for defending the freedom to read. But doing so is anything but radical — it is patriotic.”

[iron_maiden]

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2021782151687974980

NM SENATE: Republican Senate candidate Christopher Vanden Heuvel was disqualified for failing ballot requirements, leaving Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) with no GOP opponent in November if he wins his primary—the first such case in modern New Mexico history.
In all, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver ruled four candidates did not turn in enough qualified voter signatures to appear on the June primary election ballot.
https://www.abqjournal.com/news/four-new...073950f595

[iron_maiden]

This pretty much means that Andy Biggs has a clear pathway to be the Republican nominee, which is probably good news for Gov. Hobbs:

https://x.com/KTaylorRobson/status/2022060693500178492