Six months before Republicans try to hold on to control of Congress in the fall elections, a new poll shows President Bush has slid to the lowest approval rating of his presidency, and a majority of voters say they’ll vote for Democrats in November. A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday found Bush’s approval rating at 34%, two points under his previous low. He also received the lowest ratings of his presidency on his handling of the economy, energy and foreign affairs. He tied his previous low on Iraq: 32%. The poll showed Democrats leading 54%-39% among registered voters who were asked which party they would prefer in a congressional race. A spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign committee, Carl Forti, said unhappiness with Bush doesn’t doom the GOP’s 29-seat House majority because “President Bush is not on the ballot.” Forti also noted that the poll showed 59% of respondents said their own representative deserves to be re-elected. However, poll data show that’s the lowest percentage since 1994, when Republicans won control of Congress from the Democrats. Since 1950, there have been six times when presidents had Gallup approval ratings below 50% in the spring as their party sought to keep control of Congress. The president’s party lost House seats in all six years, ranging from five in 1968 to 54 in 1994. A 15-seat switch in November would give the Democrats a majority in the House. A six-seat switch would give Democrats control of the Senate.
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At a fundraiser last week for Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., he said he wants congressional colleagues “who don’t listen to polls and focus groups but stand strong for what they think we’re doing right.”
While a noble idea, I can’t help but think that the translation of that, this year, is “I want congressional colleagues who don’t stand for much.”
I don’t think left-leaners should get excited yet. With this crew, you never know what they’re going to pull out of their hat. I’m encouraged, but I don’t think polls equal votes in this case.
I was going to take a stand a refuse to vote for anyone who had supported the Patriot Act (in this most recent vote) but then realized that left me with no one to vote for.
I think that if the Democrats were better organized behind a couple of unifying principles, we would see a repeat of what the Republicans accomplished in the 1994 elections. As it stands, we are going to get a lot of local House races run on fairly local issues. I fully expect the Democrats to pick up some seats in both houses, but I would be shocked to see them take control of either.
By the way, of the 33 contested Senate seats this year, only 15 are held by Republicans. The Democrats hold 17, with the last seat being held by Jeffords, who caucuses with the Dems and is retiring this year. To get control of the Senate, the Dems would have to hold all 17 of their seats, win Jeffords’s seat in Vermont, and pick up 6 of the 15 Republican seats. That’s a pretty tall order, considering Lugar (Indiana), Snowe (Maine), Lott (Mississippi), Chafee (Rhode Island), Hutchison (Texas), Hatch (Utah), and Thomas (Wyoming) are virtual locks at this point to retain their seats. That would leave Democrats with the task of picking up 6 of the remaining 8 Republican seats.
With Joe “No, really, I’m a Democrat!” Lieberman fighting for his life today, I thought it would be a good time to revive this '06 Election Thread. The Dems are in no danger of losing Connecticut, even if Lieberman runs and wins as an Independent. He will still caucus with the Democrats. The Dems stand a good chance right now of picking up DeWine’s Senate seat in Ohio and Frist’s vacant seat in Tennessee. DeWine has been down to Brown by a few points in a couple of recent polls. And Ford in Tennessee looks to be a really strong candidate with good name recognition. Assuming the Dems get these two seats, can they get 4 more?
As for the House, a recent poll by The Washington Post-ABC News shows the anti-incumbency mood is extending to people’s own reps. Usually, people are anti-incumbency, but for their own incumbent rep by large margins. The number of people approving of their own rep’s performance is 55%, the lowest rate since 1994. This is good news for the Democrats, who lead Republicans 52% to 39% in generic balloting.
An attack at this point would be so disastrous for the administration you’d think the Democrats would rig one if they were evil and competent enough. A five-year explosion-free America is literally all Bush has going for him.
And there’s not enough time to build up a new bogeyman to capture in Iraq. As for bin Laden, the window to score significant political points for bagging him closed a long time ago, and besides, they really can’t find the guy. I would be thrilled if they did, though, Bush bounce be damned.
I might bet on a big deal “foiled attack” in October, but honestly I think the Republicans last best hope is simply voter inertia.
I really hope Ford can pull off the win in Tennessee. I hate Bob Corker with every fiber of my being. He put the interests of big business ahead of my city, and is a bitch of coporations, although Ford probably is too, just to a lesser extent. Corker has had pro-abortion stances in the past so maybe the fundies will stay home in November. Although he’ll probably win because I know the redneck mentality “we’s not gonna elect no jigaboo” is still prevalent around here. Ford will carry the western part of the state heavily. The key is the middle. East Tennessee is Republican utopia so it’s obvious he’ll carry this region heavily. Middle Tennessee is the swing part of the state and will decide this race.
Dick Morris raises some interesting points in this article about Republican vulnerability this fall, explaining how they missed a golden opportunity to gain a political advantage (and do the right thing) when they helped defeat a minimum wage increase. Right now, the GOP is relying on their gerrymandering in key states and the same '04 wedge issues to keep their majority in the '06 elections. Gerrymandering does no good in statewide Senate races. Wedge issues won’t get the moderate voters on your side when you screw up common sense stuff like minimum wage by tying it to a rise in the inheritence tax exemption. As Dick Morris said, it’s a mix of arrogance and stupidity that may sink the Republicans this fall.
Originally Posted by jonvoight’s car Dick Morris raises some interesting points in this article about Republican vulnerability this fall, explaining how they missed a golden opportunity to gain a political advantage (and do the right thing) when they helped defeat a minimum wage increase.
Bullshit. That minimum wage increase was a Catch 22 put out there by the Republican leadership. They married it to a massive estate tax repeal with the full knowledge that Dems wouldn’t pass that, just so they could turn around and do what Dick Morris is doing now: “But the Dems voted against raising your minimum wage!”
Originally Posted by PodBayDoor Bullshit. That minimum wage increase was a Catch 22 put out there by the Republican leadership. They married it to a massive estate tax repeal with the full knowledge that Dems wouldn’t pass that, just so they could turn around and do what Dick Morris is doing now: “But the Dems voted against raising your minimum wage!”
Morris is saying the Republicans missed a golden opportunity when they killed the wage increase, not Democrats. All the article says about Democrats is that they couldn’t ask for an easier way to frame the issue. He’s saying exactly what you are saying.
Originally Posted by PodBayDoor Bullshit. That minimum wage increase was a Catch 22 put out there by the Republican leadership. They married it to a massive estate tax repeal with the full knowledge that Dems wouldn’t pass that, just so they could turn around and do what Dick Morris is doing now: “But the Dems voted against raising your minimum wage!”
Yeah, he’s saying it was a mistake for the Republicans in the House to create the Catch-22 by attaching the estate tax exemption increase to the minimum wage increase. They should have passed the minimum wage increase straight up without the rider they knew the Democrats would reject. Instead, they stuck an elitist attachment onto a populist bill, ensuring neither will pass. Not only was it putting politics over principle, it was putting dumb politics over principle, which is Dick Morris’s point. The voters aren’t going to be fooled into thinking the Democrats are the reason they didn’t get a minimum wage increase, regardless of how the House Bill vote turned out.
Originally Posted by Paulpatine I never understood how a right-winger like Santorum won in PA anyway. The Democrats must pick up this seat.
It’s likely they’ll pick it up. The race has tightened a bit, but Santorum has a 36% approval rating and has trailed by as much as 23% in polls against Casey. But isn’t Casey also pro-life and anti-gun control? It’s nice to see the Democrats making room for a candidate like that.
Fun stuff happening right now. Conventional wisdom has been that the Democrats were likely to pick up a lot of seats in both the House and Senate, but likely fall just short of taking the majority. Over the last week or so, a lot of pundits have been speculating that the Democrats may just make it over the hump.
As far as Senate races go, the Democrats need to pick up 6 seats for a majority. The Democrats are safely leading in Pennsylvania (Casey over Santorum). Dems have decent leads in Montana and Rhode Island (although Chafee is gaining ground with a lot of undecides in play). That is 3 likely pick-ups. DeWine could very well be on his way out in Ohio. Brown has maintained a single digit lead for some time and anti-Republican sentiment is running high in that state. That would be a fourth. The best Democratic chances for more pickups are Missouri and Bill Frist’s open seat in Tennessee. Both races are a statistical dead heat, with a slight lead for both Democrats based on poll averages. But Tennessee has a history of leaning towards Democrats before ultimately electing Republicans.
The Democrats may have a chance to unseat Allen in Virginia, but the most recent polls give Allen around 50% support and a 6 point lead. An area of concern for Democrats is New Jersey, where Menendez has been trailing Kean in most polls. But New Jersey is supposed to be the opposite of Tennessee: It flirts with Republicans but goes home with Democrats.