After the 2006 elections, I made a post here about how McCain could never get win the presidency because he was in favor of sending more troops to Iraq.
Last year I argued strongly that Obama could never win the presidency because the country would not elect a wartime president with no real foreign policy experience.
A few months ago I predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Mitt Romney when Michael Bloomberg helped split the vote.
I don’t know politics the way I thought I knew politics.
I thought both Al Gore and John Kerry would handily beat Bush. I mean, I didn’t think it would be close at all.
I will never overestimate the American public again.
I was telling people it was “inevitable” that the race would be Clinton v. Giuliani. Looks like I was wrong on both sides.
No matter who the Democratic candidate was going to be, I knew Bush was going to win back in '04. And I quickly dismissed those early exit polls that had Kerry ahead on Election Day as “Polls mean dick” I seem to recall telling someone.
As a kid I thought that you weren’t supposed to ask or tell people who you were going to vote for. I don’t know if it was because you weren’t supposed to tell people your birthday wish because it might not come true.
Later, during elementary and middle school we’d hold mock presidential elections and I would follow around a group of kids that tried to get others to vote Republican. Sometimes I hate Little Me.
ETA: Yeah, I was with you, Singer.
I convinced myself that Kerry would beat Bush in '04 and then was sick about it when it didn’t happen. That’s what I get for reading fucking slate.com.
I figured Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, and going to Iraq was, if not strictly necessary, probably for the best. I mean, he was a bad dude, and the government seemed pretty sure of itself, and they know more than I do about this stuff, right?
Here’s something I will have been completely wrong about a year from now: I predict that the 2008 presidential election will lead to scrutiny and reform of the electoral college system even though the outcome is not contested. This happens because Obama wins most of the blue states by huge margins, while being far more competitive in red ones than dems of the past (and snaking a few swing states), resulting in a situation where the contest comes down to the last state to report even though Obama is clocking almost 60% of the popular vote.
Before I left home for college, I was wrong to think my parents were correct with their theory of single issue voting.
I made some pretty piss-poor decisions because of that. Thank goodness I learned to think on my own.
I actually think Obama is going nab quiet a few red-states. He’d take away a good chunk of the Moderates and Independents like would appeal to McCain if he was facing Clinton in the national election. Not to mention, the lack of support from the conservative-base for McCain and there isn’t a “We have to stop him! ! !” feeling with Obama (yet)…like there is with Clinton from the right-wing.
My old man said he’d vote for Obama just to keep Clinton away. And there are a lot of people (of the right, left and middle) who feel that way!
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| Originally Posted by Tieman View Post Before I left home for college, I was wrong to think my parents were correct with their theory of single issue voting. I made some pretty piss-poor decisions because of that. Thank goodness I learned to think on my own. |
Was that single issue human-animal hybrids?
Close. They’re very conservative Catholics. I’ll let you figure the rest out yourself.
I thought back in 2004 that Americans weren’t stupid enough to vote for Bush twice. Yeah.
Quote:
| Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post I actually think Obama is going nab quiet a few red-states. He’d take away a good chunk of the Moderates and Independents like would appeal to McCain if he was facing Clinton in the national election. Not to mention, the lack of support from the conservative-base for McCain and there isn’t a “We have to stop him! ! !” feeling with Obama (yet)…like there is with Clinton from the right-wing. My old man said he’d vote for Obama just to keep Clinton away. And there are a lot of people (of the right, left and middle) who feel that way! |
This is what I’m thinking. If we had an Obama v. McCain election right now, and he delivered on bringing young/new voters to the polls (which he seems to be doing pretty well at), then I think he’d take blue states by an even larger margin than usual, as well as most swing states, and lose by narrower margins the usual in the red ones. This could produce a situation where there is a tight electoral race while the popular vote is a landslide.
There are a couple problems with this theory. One, it assumes that come November, the situation will be much like today, with the Dems excited and rallied around their shiny young hero, while the GOP base is lacking enthusiasm for their pick. Two, it assumes that people would care enough to take a closer look at the electoral college system after it happened. They didn’t when it actually resulted in the loser of the popular vote getting elected, but maybe if they’re watching TV seeing Obama in a dead heat for delegates while leading by 8 million votes, they’ll start wondering “why is this even a contest?”
Probably not, though.
I recall mocking Joe Lieberman after he decided to continue on for his Senate seat when he lost to Ned Lamont. Mainly on the basis that Lamont’s win was good news for Republicans and on Lieberman’s support for the war. Then all the Republicans decided to vote for Lieberman instead of the Republican candidate.
On the bright side, the press & punditry seems to have laid off the “Situation X is good news for Republicans” assertions no matter what Situation X might be.
I thought Wesley Clark had the stuff in 04.
I think we’ve all been naive about the depravity of the Bush group to lock in their own power, and too despairing to recognize the wave of discontent out there that will (hopefully) flush them out.
I thought George W. Bush and thousands of others were personally (and actually) responsible for 9/11.
Yeah.
Up until late 2002 I was a staunch supporter of Bush and believed whole-heartedly that the gear up to going after Saddam was justified. Yup, I was one of those who bought the WMD argument hook, line and sinker.
Then I turned 18 and discovered it was OK to disagree with your parent’s political beliefs.
Set the wayback machine, Sherman.
I thought there was no way on god’s green earth that Ronald Reagan could beat Jimmy Carter out of a second term. I mean, Carter had gotten the middle eastern nations actually talking to one another, while Reagan’s speeches were full of air. Who the hell was going to vote for a bunch of empty platitudes?
That was my first political bucket of cold water in the face. Bush Jr wasn’t nearly as much of a shock to me because of that.
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| Originally Posted by Isildur’s Bangs View Post I thought George W. Bush and thousands of others were personally (and actually) responsible for 9/11. Yeah. |
I know this is kind of a sore subject for you, but what ended up changing your mind? Was it just a slow realization that his all-encompassing incompetence was not an act?
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| Originally Posted by Schwartz View Post I know this is kind of a sore subject for you, but what ended up changing your mind? Was it just a slow realization that his all-encompassing incompetence was not an act? |
Well to start, my political views beginning in my early adulthood were really influenced by my radically, and suddenly changed views on religion. Granted those views were largely correct. But it didn’t come about so much from seeing the very apparent lack of logic in religion, as it did through being very fucking pissed off.
Add to that the climate of greed, hypocrisy and self destruction we live in, while I was having to carry my own load and others at a young age, and it was hard not to see things through such an extreme eye. The lack of voices really speaking out against the injustices happening everywhere around us and the lack of people believing that change through a positive means was a real possibility if only they’d DO something about it, also was difficult not to adopt such an extreme view of things.
What started the change from this sort of believe system altogether, was very close to the reasons I fell away from religion in the first place. The people who spout this kinda shit, that were in my circle really had a completely twisted worldview. And I started to veer a little too close to the edge for comfort. The gaping holes of logic were too obvious not to see, as was the fact that it just wasn’t something I really wanted to get into in the first place so much as that I fell into.
It also helps that I never actually was a crazy nutball with a tinfoil hat, living in my mothers basement. In fact, I pay my mother’s rent.
A conspiracy of that magnitude is just not possible, even in theory. Without serious brainwashing of the mass populace. People in this country are very inundated and conditioned by media, but they’re not all a bunch of brainwashed zombies. It just isn’t that way. And the people who claim that media has inundated the populace that much are mostly pretentious, elitist assholes, and/or massively retarded people. They tend to forget that politicians and news editors are people too. There’s only so much you can take of these idiots making this outrageous claim of them alone seeing beyond the veil before you just want to pound their face in with a brick.
I still don’t have the world figured out, and the major different is that today I find it actually comforting, rather than a huge obstacle that constantly needs to be worked around. Because no one else gets it all either, and some alot less than others.
EDIT: Oh yeah, on a more specific level, I began to question alot of this bullshit when I encountered more and more people who were seriously calling out Noam Chomsky (who I really admire, and had a long email correspondence with, which culminated in a planned interview for a documentary I never got around to making - partially because of this 9/11 crap) for intellectual dishonesty because he believes and holds by the official explanations for 9/11 and JFK.
The people that believe this shit are sheep and the think they’re shepards. It’s really fucking pathetic. Even more pathetic than extremely religious types. At least they have centuries of history to fall back on for why they believe in what they do.
EDIT 2: Fuck it I’ll just tell the whole story. Or at least the best part of it.
The straw the broke the camels back for me, and I swear I’m not bullshitting at all, was a homeless guy that was stalking me who claimed to be a CIA agent (although I knew better, because again, I wasn’t actually crazy, and I actually have a friend whose is ex CIA). Anyway, he approached me in Palisades Park in Santa Monica, in the middle of the day and proceeded to reveal to me the truth behind the government’s reasoning for covering up 9/11 and told me that Governor Schwarzenegger had sent him to offer me a fucking job. I kid you the fuck not. This guy had hacked into my yahoo email account, and accessed copies of screenplays I had written in final draft that I emailed to myself, and did a very piss poor job of hiding that fact when he was telling me all about myself.
I found out later he used to be a regular at the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf I used to work at.
… wow ^^
Intense post up there.
I was wrong that Bush II would be voted out come 2004 but I predicted this back in 2000 when historic facts were against him (liniage to a former president, close general election etc..) I recanted this after 9/11 but it was still a mistake.