The Science, Technology and Futurism Thread

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Originally Posted by DaveB View Post The technology stuff sounds dubious to me, too, at least in the context of it happening within Kurzweill’s (or my) lifetime. I’m certainly nothing of a tech geek, but it seems to me that our greatest technological advances have generally been in the interest of efficiency. Humans, however, are not necessarily the most efficient creatures. It seems to me that we’re a different sort of complexity entirely than the leaders of technology are used to dealing with. We haven’t even gotten to all-around convincing AI yet, and that would just be the surface illusion of humanity. For Kurzeill’s ideas about nanotechnology and transferring consciousnesses, we’d have to achieve a very profound understanding of the brain and somehow figure out how to replicate it technologically. That’s more than just memory, which is hard enough. It’s also emotion, perception, intuition, all the connections necessary to create a thought; it’s also the hardware, which we still don’t entirely have a handle on. We can observe brain phenomena when it comes to fear, love, anger, etc., but we’re a ways from nailing down exactly how and why they happen. Like I said above, this is absolutely nothing like saving a file or recording a film.

Also when he says nanotechnology which time of nanotechnology is he talking about. Is he talking about MEMS, DNA, Dry, Wet, or something else. I not sure he understand the technology he is advocating.

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Originally Posted by eenin View Post A medical version is more probable then a digital version.

Either of them is a bad idea.

(re: Dave’s last post)

Right. It’s probably way, way off. Which is not the same as “never,” but you know that. And since it’s way, way off, we don’t know how things will fall into place.

(Assuming that by “it” we mean a functioning artificial human brain, and by “we” we mean any human ever) well, that could happen in all kinds of ways. Maybe we’ll figure out how to grow a brain in a lab. Maybe we’ll get enough computing power to run a program that simulates every single molecule in a brain. Either of those might work, and might work even if we don’t understand any more than we do today about emotion, memory, etc.

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Originally Posted by James Kimbell View Post (re: Dave’s last post) Right. It’s probably way, way off. Which is not the same as “never,” but you know that. And since it’s way, way off, we don’t know how things will fall into place. But… (Assuming that by “it” we mean a functioning artificial human brain, and by “we” we mean any human ever) well, that could happen in all kinds of ways. Maybe we’ll figure out how to grow a brain in a lab. Maybe we’ll get enough computing power to run a program that simulates every single molecule in a brain. Either of those might work, and might work even if we don’t understand any more than we do today about emotion, memory, etc.

The close we are to anything like this is stem cell injection to repair brain damage, and there are all kind of problem to this beside were you get the stems cells from. One of the biggest problem with stem cells right now is the little bugger don’t always do what you want them to do, it kind of like a role of the dice. Come on baby daddy need a new brain, oh shit cancer.

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Originally Posted by eenin View Post The close we are to anything like this is stem cell injection to repair brain damage, and there are all kind of problem to this beside were you get the stems cells from. One of the biggest problem with stem cells right now is the little bugger don’t always do what you want them to do, it kind of like a role of the dice. Come on baby daddy need a new brain, oh shit cancer.

I kind of wish the process worked in such a way that this exact scene could play out.

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Originally Posted by eenin View Post The close we are to anything like this is stem cell injection to repair brain damage, and there are all kind of problem to this beside were you get the stems cells from. One of the biggest problem with stem cells right now is the little bugger don’t always do what you want them to do, it kind of like a role of the dice. Come on baby daddy need a new brain, oh shit cancer.

Yeah, I’d think that would be the problem with nanotechnology injected with the hopes of it rebuilding old cells and what-have-you, too. Sure, it sounds great until you think about the consequences of that nanotechnology having the wrong blueprint or something. Whoops - instant tumor!

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Originally Posted by Renn Brown View Post I kind of wish the process worked in such a way that this exact scene could play out.

It was an over simplification, but it kind of get the point across. I know doctors who are doing human testing of stems on people with fatal diseases, and the like. Some time they get what they are aiming for, and some time they get something total unintended, and the unintended can be lethal. Also some times they get what they are aiming for and it does not last( most likely because the stems are not a true match for the host cells).

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Originally Posted by James Kimbell View Post Maybe we’ll get enough computing power to run a program that simulates every single molecule in a brain.

Part of the problem with AI is that some people see it as a computing power problem, which it isn’t. Doesn’t matter if Moore’s “law” holds until the end of the Universe, that’s not the main problem of true cognitive AI.

Turing formulated his famous AI “test” in the 50s and he predicted we would be much further by the year 2000 (based on computing power). We’re nowhere near to having any system pass it.

So saying that “software sucks” is a true statement, and while you would tend not to say “this will never be possible” you should be able to understand how based on where we are right now it is difficult to predict when we’ll get there. That’s why people estimating, “we’ll have true AI in by 2029, or whatever” are full of BS. They can’t really predict it, we can somewhat get a rough idea of computing power by then but that has nothing to do with true AI in my view.

I used to do a lot of work in Computer Vision and we had a similar problem there, but I also think that putting more of the “sensory” part together with the algorithms (neural nets, genetic learning, etc) should surely get us in the right path.

Whew, real life got in the way almost immediately after I opened the thread.

Singularity talk has taken off, I see. Here are some more links for you guys on that topic:

http://singinst.org/media/singularitysummit2008 <—all of these videos are pretty good, but Watch the Vinge, Goertzel, Gershenfeld, and the two with Kurzweil for the best of the lot. Many of the questions and objections posted here get addressed, maybe not to anyone’s satisfaction, but they do get talked about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity <—The Wikipedia entry is actually pretty good, and look closely at Kurzweil’s graph. Accelerating change has been going on since the beginning of technology, it’s just that the change is exponential rather than linear, so it looks like nothing happens for a long period of time before you get a huge explosion of activity at the end.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame...s/art0236.html <—a long and quite detailed response that Kurzweil made to a critic.

I’m like Mulder with the Singularity: I Want To Believe, but my natural skeptical inclinations keep me (I hope) somewhat grounded and realistic. So I’m kind of playing devil’s advocate here, simply because I’ve read and listened to a hell of a lot of stuff about this topic in the last 7 or 8 years.

When it comes to longevity, Kurzweil proposes three “bridges to immortality”. The first bridge is biological, and we’re entering that phase now. Stem cells are nice, but synthetic biology is where the real action will be. Watch this, and have your mind get blown by what Venter is already doing: http://fora.tv/2008/02/25/Joining_3_...ion#chapter_01 The idea is that biology, synthetic or otherwise, is accelerating exponentially like every other tech, and should be able to keep us alive long enough to reach bridge #2.

Next up is nanotech, which is in its infancy. I don’t have anything really cool to share here, this is the area I know the least about. The idea is that you suffuse your bloodstream with nanotech, and they go about the job of repairing everything that synthetic biology couldn’t hack, thus keeping you alive long enough to see the next bridge.

Then bridge #3 is AI, reverse engineering the brain, merging with machines, etc. This has to be the most difficult to achieve, and where the claims and timeframes are hardest to believe. But Here’s Dr. Goertzel again, with [“10 Years to a Positive Singualrity - If We Really, Really Try”]](http://singinst.org/media/singularitysummit2007/bengoertzel) to try and convince you otherwise.

To bring this all back to Chud: If these guys are right, or nearly right, then traditional film making has got maybe 20-30 years left before it disappears in…well, in a puff of logic.

He freely acknowledges that the resurrected version of his father will not necessarily be the same man. He also acknowledges that this “father” version may be an avatar.

Is no one else blown away by this beamed holographic image that fools people at lectures shtick ?

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Originally Posted by Name_user View Post He freely acknowledges that the resurrected version of his father will not necessarily be the same man. He also acknowledges that this “father” version may be an avatar.

Yeah, but what are the implications of that? There’s something monumentally fucked up about reconstructing someone based on your conception of him and claiming that even if it’s not technically the same person, it’s “good enough.”

But, really, the father fixation just seems like an indicator of what really seems to be motivating Kurzweill, if not some of the others associated with the idea of the Singularity: an overriding fear of death.

And while this is hardly a unique phenomenon, it’s generally codified in either religion or political ideology (granted, none of these, Singularity included, are exclusively concerned with literal or figurative life after death). The Singularity seems like something borne out of some of the same fear that people associate with the worst impulses of religion - it’s a stab at immortality in an increasingly secular age. But on the downside, it jettisons the social values associated with religion (and I’m sure the crowd here is going to be all over that, but remember that the central values of most religions practiced today have to do with compassion and enlightenment, not beating up homosexuals or suicide bombings) for a value-neutral, ostensibly scientific approach. In fact, Kurzweill even acknowledges that it has an element of spirituality to it in the third link that Eyeball kid provided - to some extent, it’s faith minus the God stuff.

It seems cleaner and not as loaded with the taint of the irrational* as a religion or political ideology, but I’m betting that Heidegger would have something to say about that. We’ve just invented yet another way to deal with existential dread.

* For the record, I’m quite fond of the irrational, but I suspect that most Singularity adherents wouldn’t cop to the fact that there’s, in some part, an irrational fear driving the bus.

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Originally Posted by Name_user View Post He freely acknowledges that the resurrected version of his father will not necessarily be the same man. He also acknowledges that this “father” version may be an avatar. Is no one else blown away by this beamed holographic image that fools people at lectures shtick ?

I agree with daveb that it is fucked up. Also, not only do these people not deal with humanity inherent irrationality, but humanity self destructive nature( on some level we are all our own worse enemy). Also these people are not taking statistics in to account, if you are physical at some point you will die.

Now, granted, it may be that I just don’t remember a lot of that boring learning stuff from school, but I think I learned more in 10 minutes than semesters in science class:

Evolution

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Originally Posted by Doc Happenin View Post Now, granted, it may be that I just don’t remember a lot of that boring learning stuff from school, but I think I learned more in 10 minutes than semesters in science class: Evolution

That’s a good video. He managed to squeeze a lot of small, important points in there.

Wolfram|Alpha launches today. The bombs should start falling by morning once it becomes self-aware. Oh well, it’s been a good run.

Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfram_Alpha

The Hubble Repair Mission, backdropped by the sun…

http://gizmodo.com/5255723/amateur-a...ace-of-the-sun

This is as good a thread as any for this.

According to Nature scientists at Manchester University managed to create RNA molecules in the lab using conditions that existed in early Earth. One step closer to proving experimentally that abiogenesis (the creation of life from inorganic materials) is possible. If my bilogy knowledge isn’t failing it is pretty huge news.

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Originally Posted by Eyeball Kid View Post [Wolfram

Thinks that is a cool engine.

Awesome, DARPA is prepping our troops for telepathy:
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009...elepathy-push/

Bring it machines/monkeys/aliens!

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Originally Posted by stelios View Post This is as good a thread as any for this. According to Nature scientists at Manchester University managed to create RNA molecules in the lab using conditions that existed in early Earth. One step closer to proving experimentally that abiogenesis (the creation of life from inorganic materials) is possible. If my bilogy knowledge isn’t failing it is pretty huge news.

That IS fucking huge news. And we hear about it on CHUD & not the evening news. Our priorities as a nation are so out of whack. . .

Or maybe it’s the creationist nutjobs intimidate everyone: “Ya’ll say yuh kin create Laff in a PEE-TREE dish!? Buh-LAS-Phemy!”