Dailykos.com has the earliest NEP (the new exit polling system all the networks are using to call races) numbers up:
Kerry/Bush
AZ - 45/55
CO - 48/51
LA - 42/57
PA - 60/40
OH - 52/48
FL - 51/48
MI - 51/47
NM - 50/48
MN - 58/40
WI - 52/43
IA - 49/49
NH - 57/41
Obviously, exit polling doesn’t account for absentee ballots or early voting. And these numbers will morph as the day goes on. But so far, looks good for Kerry.
Funny enough, Wall Street has gone down due to this news.
Great crap those Minnesota and Pennsylvania numbers are high. Those can’t be accurate.
Quote:
| Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states… National Election Pool – representing six major news organization – shows Kerry in striking distance – with small 1% lead – in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE… [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]… Exits Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4… KERRY FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS; BOTH CAMPS URGE CAUTION |
It’s going to be an interesting night seeing how these shake out.
I was pretty amazed by those, too. This has gotta be REALLY early. Not only that, but Ohio and Wisconsin, two other “Swing states” have nice little leads. Hell, according to this thing, damn near EVERY swing state is going Kerry.
The picture isn’t going to start sharpening for awhile yet. But these early returns are pretty good.
I’m still jittery, though.
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Micah Robinson Funny enough, Wall Street has gone down due to this news. |
Wall Street always dives when a challenger beats an incumbent. It’s uncertainty, they hate it. Conversely, Wall Street historically does better under Democrats.
I read that Wall Street is also nervous about the election not being decided by tomorrow morning.
According to CNN:
"Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.
Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush."
Thank Christ, the picture’s a bit more optimistic in reality…
You should see AOHell’s exit polling…scared the shit out of me for a minute there…
Quote:
| Originally Posted by XTheCrovvX Thank Christ, the picture’s a bit more optimistic in reality… You should see AOHell’s exit polling…scared the shit out of me for a minute there… |
Well, no cause for celebration or concern yet. Just optimism or pessimism. Kerry is optimistic right now with good reason. Advance voting swung his way as has early exit polls, but there’re still hours to go.
I’d ignore it. It’s way too early for this.
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Micah Robinson Well, no cause for celebration or concern yet. Just optimism or pessimism. Kerry is optimistic right now with good reason. Advance voting swung his way as has early exit polls, but there’re still hours to go. |
Yeah, i know, night’s not over (and it’s gonna be a REAL interesting night at work, with results coming in during closing…)…and at this point, everybody’s numbers come with a grain of salt…still, this whole day’s got me jittery as hell…
I’m such a loser that I am sitting here at work, ACTUALLY FLUSHED with the excitement of it all.
Trend is looking good for Kerry. We’ll see if it holds.
Well, it’s nearly time for us lowly subjects in the 51st State to hit the sack. It’s a bit like going to bed on Christmas eve, only you’re not sure if Santa is going to bring you a slightly underwhelming imitation of the toy you really wanted, or just punch you hard in the nutsack with a spiked glove.
I think I’m going to stay up all night. If my darkest fears come true and the world is going to descend into the tenth level of hell, I think I should be there to see it live.
If Kerry wins… I’ll do something good for CHUD readers. I don’t know what, but it’ll be good.
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Nick Nunziata If Kerry wins… I’ll do something good for CHUD readers. I don’t know what, but it’ll be good. |
Hmmm… most interesting.
Of course, I bet $200 on the Astros in game 5 so the Braves would be assured a win and that backfired all over my face.
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Nick Nunziata that backfired all over my face. |
Interesting indeed…